Iran leadership change by May 31?

Market indicates low likelihood of Iran leadership change by May 31.

The prediction market shows a 29.5% probability for a leadership change in Iran by May 31, with a stronger consensus against it at 70.5%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability for change at 31.5%, suggesting some uncertainty, but overall confidence remains moderate at 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards stability in Iran's leadership.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities indicates slight uncertainty.
• 3 Historical trends show leadership changes in Iran are infrequent.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 1575 hours until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.