Iran nuclear test before 2027?

The market indicates a low probability of an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.

With a market probability of 13.5% for a nuclear test by Iran before 2027, the consensus leans heavily towards a 'NO.' The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting limited expectations for such an event in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a stable outlook on Iran's nuclear intentions.
• 3 Historical context shows limited precedent for rapid nuclear advancements.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential geopolitical shifts affecting predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.