Iran Nuke before 2027?

Market shows low probability for Iran developing nuclear weapons by 2027.

The prediction market indicates a 16.5% chance of Iran acquiring nuclear capabilities before 2027, with a majority (83.5%) believing it will not happen. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus on the low likelihood of this outcome, with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and Pulse AI are closely aligned.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".