Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

The market strongly indicates the conflict will not end by March 15.

The prediction market shows a 100% probability that the Iran x Israel/US conflict will not end by March 15, with a consensus that aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 99%. This suggests a strong sentiment against a resolution in the near term, reflecting ongoing tensions and complexities in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly against a resolution by the deadline.
• 2 Market probability suggests low expectations for diplomatic progress.
• 3 Historical context shows prolonged conflicts in the region.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, affecting urgency in market movements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.)