Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?

The market overwhelmingly predicts the conflict will not end by March 7.

Current market data shows a strong consensus against the possibility of the Iran-Israel/US conflict ending by March 7, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of resolution within the given timeframe.

• 1 Market probability indicates a strong belief in continued conflict.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting low volatility.
• 3 High confidence level (90/100) reinforces the stability of current predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry is short, limiting potential for rapid changes.
• 5 No recent events suggest a shift towards resolution before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.)