Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?

Low probability of an Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15.

The prediction market indicates a 9% chance of an Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15, with a strong consensus against it at 91%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 11%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100. This suggests that while some risk is acknowledged, the prevailing sentiment leans heavily towards a non-event.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 4 Recent geopolitical events may influence future probabilities.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.

Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or caus