Low probability for an Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7.
The prediction market indicates a 1.05% chance of an Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7, with a strong consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 3.05%, suggesting some uncertainty but still favoring a 'NO' outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory.
Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or cause