Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Low probability of Israel and Syria normalizing relations by 2026.

The market indicates an 84% likelihood that Israel and Syria will not normalize relations by the end of 2026. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for normalization at 19.5%, but overall sentiment remains skeptical, reflecting historical tensions and current geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical context shows longstanding tensions between Israel and Syria.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with a small edge noted.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to unpredictability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.