Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?

The market strongly favors Israeli military action against Yemen by April 2026.

With a market probability of 100% for military action and an AI probability of 94%, there is a strong consensus on this outcome. However, the NO side is considered undervalued by 6 points, indicating some potential for market correction as new information emerges.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of military action.
• 2 The AI model suggests a high likelihood of the event occurring.
• 3 The NO side shows potential for value given its 6-point undervaluation.
• 4 Confidence in the prediction is rated at 80 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 363 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.