Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Market predicts a high likelihood of an Israeli strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief in the possibility of an Israeli military action in Yemen, with a 79% probability for a strike by the specified date. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 71.5%, indicating some divergence in sentiment. The NO side appears undervalued, suggesting potential for shifts in market perception.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a strike, reflecting geopolitical concerns.
• 2 The probability gap indicates potential undervaluation of the NO side.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate, suggesting uncertainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market dynamics could shift with new intelligence or political events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.