The market suggests a low probability of a ceasefire by March 31.
Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will not occur by the end of March, with a 96.2% chance of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 7.3%. This suggests a consensus on the challenges facing a ceasefire agreement in the near term.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that