Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Low probability of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by March 31, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that a ceasefire will not occur, with a 91.5% probability against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that current geopolitical dynamics favor continued conflict rather than resolution.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of a YES outcome is notably low at 8.5%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not