Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Low probability for an Israel-Syria security agreement by June 30.

The market indicates a strong belief that a security agreement between Israel and Syria is unlikely by the end of June, with a 79.5% probability of 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that current geopolitical dynamics do not favor such an agreement.

• 1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 79.5%, indicating skepticism.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 24%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.