Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Market indicates a low probability of Jimmy Lai's release by June 30.

The prediction market shows a 20.55% chance of Jimmy Lai being released by June 30, with a stronger consensus against it at 79.45%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for his release at 22.05%, indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall agreement on a low likelihood.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly negative towards Lai's release.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a slight underestimation of risk.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry of 2605 hours allows for potential developments to influence outcomes.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced, with an edge of 1.5 suggesting stability in current odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.