Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

Market leans towards NO for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by May 1.

The prediction market indicates a 62.5% probability that Kevin Warsh will not be confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1, with a lower probability of 37.5% for confirmation. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a slight edge towards the NO outcome, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability favors NO outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.