Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

High probability for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair by May 15.

The market shows an 82.5% probability for Kevin Warsh being confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15, indicating strong sentiment in favor of this outcome. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower confidence at 76.5%, highlighting a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points. With a confidence rating of 75 out of 100 and 1577 hours until expiry, the market remains dynamic.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors Warsh's confirmation.
• 2 Market probability indicates a high level of confidence in the YES outcome.
• 3 The NO side appears undervalued, suggesting potential for market correction.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with over 1577 hours until the deadline.
• 5 Political dynamics could shift rapidly, impacting probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.