KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?

Low probability of KRG declaring independence from Iraq by April 30.

The prediction market indicates a 3.5% chance of the KRG declaring independence from Iraq by the end of April, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting minimal expectations for this outcome. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the current sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against independence.
• 2 The probability of 3.5% suggests minimal investor confidence.
• 3 Historical context shows limited precedent for such declarations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, with no signs of volatility.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.