Maduro guilty of all counts?

Market indicates low probability of Maduro being guilty on all counts.

The prediction market shows a 27.5% probability for Maduro being guilty of all counts, suggesting skepticism about the charges. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus on the low likelihood of guilt. With a confidence level of 50/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a balanced view on this issue.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO' for guilt.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and AI are closely aligned.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level indicates uncertainty in the outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).

If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.

The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.