Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

Market predicts Microstrategy will not be delisted from the MSCI index by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Microstrategy being delisted from the MSCI index, with a probability of only 1.1% for a YES outcome. This suggests that participants believe the company will maintain its listing status, reflecting confidence in its current position. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Key factors include Microstrategy's financial stability and index criteria.
• 3 Historical data shows low delisting rates for similar companies.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with minimal volatility.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 556 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market.

An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.