Military action against Iran ends by March 11, 2026?

The market strongly favors that military action against Iran will not end by March 11, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that military action against Iran will not conclude by the specified date. With a low AI probability of 2% for a YES outcome, the consensus suggests significant skepticism about an imminent resolution. The confidence level of 80/100 reflects a strong belief in the current market assessment.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO sentiment at 100%.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely with market, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level suggests a high degree of certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 352 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, n