Military action against Iran ends by March 19, 2026?

Market indicates low probability of military action against Iran ending by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of military action against Iran concluding by March 19, 2026, with a 96.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a stable outlook on this geopolitical issue.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a well-priced market with minimal speculation.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Historical trends in U.S.-Iran relations show prolonged tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, n