Military action against Iran ends by March 27, 2026?

Low probability of military action against Iran ending by March 27, 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 86% likelihood that military action against Iran will not conclude by the specified date. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 17.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100. With 352 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a small edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time until expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Market appears to reflect a balanced view of geopolitical risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, n