Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?

Market suggests low likelihood of military action against Iran ending by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 83% probability that military action against Iran will not end by March 28, 2026. The Pulse AI slightly adjusts this to a 79.5% probability for the same outcome, suggesting a consensus on the low likelihood of resolution within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a stable outlook on ongoing tensions.
• 3 Historical trends show prolonged military engagements in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 347 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, n