Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of military action against Iran ending by March 31, 2026.

With a market probability of 19% for a 'YES' outcome and a Pulse AI probability of 22.5%, the consensus leans heavily towards 'NO'. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions, while the time to expiry of 351 hours indicates a relatively short window for potential developments.

• 1 Market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 81%.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly higher on 'YES' at 22.5%, indicating some optimism.
• 3 Confidence level at 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 351 hours, increasing potential volatility.
• 5 Edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, n