Military action against Iran ends on March 13, 2026?

The market strongly favors that military action against Iran will not end by March 13, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.45%) that military action against Iran will continue beyond March 13, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a lower probability of 4.05% for a potential end. The market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market heavily favors the continuation of military action against Iran.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low probability of action ending by the specified date.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in current market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 445 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market edge of 3.5 suggests fair pricing without significant anomalies.

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as a