Military action against Iran ends on March 18, 2026?

The market strongly favors that military action against Iran will not end by March 18, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that military action against Iran will continue past March 18, 2026, with a 99.35% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong consensus against the action ending, suggesting that geopolitical factors heavily influence these predictions.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.35%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a similar trend with 'NO' at 95.85%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 435 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as a