Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of military action against Iran ending by March 26, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of military action against Iran concluding by the specified date, with a 97.55% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that current geopolitical conditions do not favor an end to military actions in this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical trends show prolonged military engagements in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with 437 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as a