Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?

The market strongly favors no military action against Iran ending by March 28, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of military action against Iran concluding by the specified date, with a 98.1% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against military action ending by the deadline.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' than the market.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 442 hours allows for potential developments impacting the situation.

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as a