Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

Market shows a low probability of Mojtaba Khamenei leaving Iran by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 35.10% chance of Mojtaba Khamenei leaving Iran by the specified date, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 38.6%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100, reflecting a cautious sentiment regarding his potential departure.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards Khamenei remaining in Iran.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Political stability in Iran is a key factor influencing this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.