Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates low likelihood of Mojtaba Khamenei leaving Iran by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong preference for the 'NO' outcome, suggesting skepticism about Mojtaba Khamenei's departure from Iran by the specified date. The AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates a low likelihood of this event occurring, reflecting a consensus on Khamenei's stability in his current position.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 82.05%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 21.45%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1087 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.