Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Low probability for Mojtaba Khamenei's public appearance by March 13.

The market shows a strong consensus against Mojtaba Khamenei being seen in public by March 13, with a 93.5% probability for 'NO'. The AI model also aligns closely with this view, indicating a low likelihood of his public appearance within the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 93.5%.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 8.5%.
• 3 Market probability indicates a well-established consensus on Khamenei's absence.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 33 hours remaining for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.