Market leans towards NO for Mojtaba Khamenei's public appearance by March 31.
The prediction market shows a higher probability for NO at 55%, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower chance for YES at 40.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 465 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced with a small edge of -4.5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.