Named storm forms before hurricane season?

Market leans towards no named storm forming before hurricane season.

The prediction market indicates a 57% probability that no named storm will form before the hurricane season, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 44.5% for a named storm. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 1970 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors no named storm formation.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is minimal.
• 3 Historical data shows few storms form before the official season.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with moderate trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in weather forecasts.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.