Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Market indicates a low probability of Nicolás Maduro being released by 2026.

The prediction market shows an 86% likelihood that Nicolás Maduro will not be released from custody by December 31, 2026. The probabilities from the market and Pulse AI are closely aligned, suggesting a consensus on the situation. With a confidence level of 65/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
• 2 The probability gap between YES and NO is narrow, indicating uncertainty.
• 3 Historical context suggests low chances of early release for political figures.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 No clear time pressure is indicated for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.