Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

The market indicates a higher likelihood of events occurring by 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a 60% chance that 'nothing ever happens' by 2026, with a 40% chance for the opposite. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a balanced sentiment between the two outcomes. With a confidence level of 75 out of 100, there is moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 60%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns with market, indicating 60% for 'NO'.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 7125 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with no significant edge.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf