Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026.

With a market probability of 28.50% for a ceasefire by the end of 2026, the consensus leans heavily towards a continuation of conflict. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 30.5%, suggesting some uncertainty but still favoring the 'NO' outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors ongoing conflict over a ceasefire.
• 2 Key factors include military developments and international diplomatic efforts.
• 3 Historical trends show prolonged conflicts often take years to resolve.
• 4 Market liquidity is stable, reflecting consistent interest in the outcome.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with 6619 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.