Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

The market sees a low probability for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Current market probabilities indicate a 24.5% chance of a peace agreement, with a stronger consensus against it at 75.5%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for peace at 28%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100, reflecting uncertainty in geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Market sentiment leans heavily against a peace agreement.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests potential mispricing.
• 3 Current geopolitical tensions remain high, impacting peace prospects.
• 4 Historical trends show low rates of resolution in similar conflicts.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf