SBF released from custody in 2026?

Market indicates low probability of SBF being released from custody in 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of SBF being released from custody in 2026, with a probability of only 12.5% for a YES outcome. The market appears fairly priced, as indicated by the zero edge, and the confidence level is relatively high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO at 87.5%.
• 2 Market sentiment suggests strong skepticism about release.
• 3 Fair pricing indicates no significant misalignment in expectations.
• 4 High confidence level reflects stability in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.