Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?

Low probability of Tim Walz being charged by March 31, 2026.

The market indicates a 3.3% chance of Tim Walz being charged by the specified date, suggesting strong skepticism about this outcome. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a fair pricing edge, the consensus leans heavily towards a 'NO' prediction. The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments that could influence sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 96.7%.
• 2 The probability reflects a stable outlook with no significant changes expected.
• 3 Historical trends show low rates of charges against incumbents in similar contexts.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate, indicating healthy market participation.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 525 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.