Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?

Low probability of Ukraine agreeing to a US backed ceasefire by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 2.6% chance of Ukraine officially agreeing to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31, with a strong consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 97.4%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting limited likelihood of such an agreement occurring in the near term.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 97.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 6.1%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 496 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:

1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.

2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks durin