US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

Market favors no US escorting ships through Hormuz by April 15.

The prediction market indicates an 84% probability that the US will not escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, suggesting a strong sentiment against this action. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, with a slightly higher probability for a yes outcome, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is narrow, indicating alignment.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to developments.
• 5 Geopolitical dynamics in the region could rapidly alter probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.

A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a