US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Market leans towards no US escorting ships through Hormuz by April 30.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability for a 'NO' outcome regarding US escorts for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of April. With a market probability of 55.5% for 'NO' and a Pulse AI probability of 60% for the same outcome, the sentiment suggests skepticism about US military involvement in this scenario.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome at 55.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability for 'YES' at 40%.
• 3 The edge of -4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 252 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.

A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a c