US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Market favors no US escorting ships through Hormuz by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 65.5% likelihood that the US will not escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of March. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's probabilities, suggesting a consensus on the lower likelihood of such military action occurring in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'no' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a stable geopolitical environment for now.
• 3 Historical trends show limited US military intervention in the area.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for accurate pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 431 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.

A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a c