U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?

The market favors a NO outcome for the U.S. evacuating its Baghdad Embassy by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the U.S. will not evacuate its Baghdad Embassy by the end of March, with a NO probability of 79%. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a slightly higher chance for evacuation but still favoring NO. The confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Market probability for NO is significantly higher than YES.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight increase in YES probability compared to market.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Current sentiment reflects stability in U.S. embassy operations.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.