US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Market indicates a high probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30.

The prediction market shows a 68.5% probability for US forces entering Iran by the end of April, suggesting significant sentiment towards military action. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook but at a slightly lower probability of 62.5%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. With a confidence level of 85 out of 100, the market appears to be relatively stable but sensitive to geopolitical developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards military intervention.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 6 points.
• 3 High confidence level suggests strong conviction in the current probabilities.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 741 hours until expiry.
• 5 Geopolitical developments could rapidly shift market dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.