US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Market indicates a high probability of US forces entering Iran by year-end.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the possibility of US military action in Iran, with a 76.5% probability for intervention by December 31. This sentiment is supported by an AI probability of 70.5%, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of escalation in the region.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors intervention with a 76.5% probability.
• 2 AI predictions align closely but slightly lower at 70.5%, indicating some caution.
• 3 The NO side appears undervalued by 6 points, suggesting potential for reevaluation.
• 4 High confidence level of 85/100 reflects strong market conviction in the YES outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6621 hours, allowing for significant geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.