US forces enter Iran by March 1?

Market indicates no expectation for US forces to enter Iran by March 1.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of US forces entering Iran by the specified date, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The AI model corroborates this view with a slight chance for 'YES', suggesting minimal sentiment for military action in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment is firmly against US military action in Iran.
• 2 The probability assigned by the market aligns closely with AI predictions.
• 3 Historical data shows low likelihood of rapid military interventions without significant provocation.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 No imminent expiry date may allow for shifts in sentiment as events unfold.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.