US forces enter Iran by March 3?

Market indicates no expectation of US forces entering Iran by March 3.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against US forces entering Iran by the specified date, with a 100% probability on the NO side. The AI probability aligns closely with the market, suggesting a high level of confidence in the current assessment.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Market probability reflects a stable geopolitical outlook.
• 3 Historical data shows low likelihood of US military action in Iran.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for current market conditions.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, as expiry date is unknown.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.