U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?

Market indicates low probability of U.S. forces seizing another oil tanker by March 7.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of U.S. forces seizing another oil tanker, with a 99.35% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal expectations for such an event occurring before the deadline.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of a seizure is low based on existing data.
• 3 Historical trends show few instances of U.S. seizures in recent months.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and March 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.