US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

The market shows a slight preference for no US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027.

Current probabilities indicate a narrow margin against a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, with the market leaning towards 'NO' at 51.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, suggesting a higher likelihood of no agreement. This sentiment may be influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and historical challenges in negotiations.

• 1 Market probability shows a near-even split, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse verdict aligns with the majority view, favoring 'NO'.
• 3 AI probability suggests a stronger inclination towards 'NO' than the market.
• 4 The edge indicates potential undervaluation of the 'NO' side.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.